WR Values versus Mind Freak

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Ok, so I was having a hard time looking at a list of players and putting together a ranking  and tier list properly. So what iCon did was use the draft software for the site and conduct a three round WR only draft. I felt this was the best way to analyze the position for trends , rankings , tiers and values and while also providing the most clear way to illustrate where the drop offs are and showing how to avoid unnecessarily reaching for overvalued WRs. A standard 12 team league starts up to 3 wrs = 36 starting WRs per week. Here is my top 36. Broken down in to tiers for a better understanding of who you should be targeting and when you should be targeting them. 

Tier 1

1.1 Calvin Johnson WR/DET

1.2 Andre Johnson  WR/HOU

Tier 1.5

1.3 Larry Fitzgerald WR/ARI

1.4 Hakeem Nicks WR/NYG

1.5 Roddy White  WR/ATL

1.6 Greg Jennings  WR/GB

Tier 2

1.7 Mike Wallace  WR/Pit

1.8 Vincent Jackson  WR/SD

1.9 Dwayne Bowe  WR/KC

1.10 Miles Austin   WR/Dal

1.11 Reggie Wayne   WR/IND

Tier 3

1.12  Mike Williams   WR/TB

Ok nothing too out of the ordinary for my first 12 WRs off the board here. I slot Fitz in at third with the addition of Kolb. Kolb is an intermediate passer , Fitz is an intermediate Route runner and that equals a match made in heaven. To me the WR corp as a whole is lacking the type of elite tier talent that pushes this position over the top. I list Fitz through Jennings as Tier 1.5 because to me they have elite WR upside, but are just a small tick below Mega and AJ. I slot Mike Wallace in at number 7 due to his age , the offense he is in and his explosiveness. Wayne falls to the bottom of the pack here as a very low end WR1 , while I slot Bowe just ahead of him because of Bowes size and penchant to score TDs. One thing I did not realize here is how undervalued Vincent Jackson is right now. I am seeing many drafts where he is falling to round 4 and frankly its bizarre when you look at the names out there , his upside is about as high as anyone this season and I have a feeling that a market correction is coming soon and over the next few weeks he will be taken late round 2 of most PPR drafts.

ROUND 2

2.1 Jeremy Maclin  WR/PHI

2.2 Desean Jackson  WR/PHI

2.3 Dez Bryant   WR/ DAL

2.4 Santonio Holmes  WR/NYJ

2.5 Brandon Marshall  WR/MIA

Tier 3.5

2.6 Percy Harvin  WR/MINN

2.7 Marques Colston WR/ NO

2.8 Pierre Garcon  WR/IND

Tier 4

2.9  Austin Collie  WR/IND

2.10 Wes Welker  WR/NE

2.11 Brandon Lloyd  WR/Den

2.12 Kenny Britt  WR/Tenn

Analysis: The top end of this round starts with explosion and question marks and ends with explosion and question marks. Maclin through Harvin all seem to be drafted on draft day between rounds 3 and 5 while guys like Lloyd (who I just moved back up with Orton as the starter), Britt and to some extent Garcon seem to last just a bit later into rounds 6 or 7 in full ppr drafts. Just by looking at my board , and knowing that there is not a HUGE difference between someone like Maclin versus someone like Garcon, your team will look much better if you wait a round or two and take from the bottom half of these players. As of this writing my two WRs of choice from this group are Harvin and Garcon , I find them to be the best values in rounds 5 and 6 versus having to spend a 3 or 4 to get Desean or Maclin. You will find neither Eagle on my team this year.

ROUND 3

3.1 Mario Manningham WR/NYG

3.2 Sidney Rice WR/SEA

3.3 Steve Johnson WR/BUF

3.4 Anquan Boldin WR/BAL

Tier 5

3.5 Mike Thomas  WR/JAX

3.6 Chad Johnson  WR/NE

3.7 Lance Moore WR/NO

3.8  Johnny Knox  WR/CHI

Tier 6

3.9 Danny Amendola   WR/STL

3.10  Malcolm Floyd  WR/SD

3.11 Steve Smith  WR/CAR

3.12 Michael Crabtree  WR/SF

Analysis:

This round is paltry. From top to bottom these guys all offer limited upside versus age, injury , situation type questions. The BEST value of this group here is Malcolm Floyd. I have snagged Floyd 5 or so times this season in rounds 12-14 simply because people are by passing him to take AJ Green about 2 years too soon. Mike Thomas is a good play , you can get him in rounds 8-10 and he has some spunk but also has limited upside because of the offense , but none the less he will get you some points and I like that sure points out of my WR3.  Crabtree makes the list simply because AJ Green is not ready , and Santana Moss is in QB purgatory. Same can be said of Steve Smith , but Smith is a more talented player and has better running backs to support the offense.

OVERALL:

There is a growing sentiment out there that the WR corp is deep enough to wait forever on, but I just do NOT see it. After the top 6, the drop off is too big for my taste. The fact that a guy like Mike Wallace has practically forced his way up to 7 is a testament to some aging ,used to be WR1 stalwarts (Wayne, Boldin) and some high profile draft picks that have yet to pan out (Crabtree).  Possibly in the near future AJ Green , Julio Jones and Dez Bryant will add some necessary firepower to the top end of the position which will create enough depth for me to pass on some  early WRs, but for now I am setting out to make sure I have one of those top 6 on my team and then waiting for the mid tier clutter to unravel leaving me with the beautiful choice between Harvin and Garcon.

Fantasy Football is all about gaining knowledge on how to maximize value and produce the best team possible from any and all draft positions. That knowledge gained starts here , reading articles like this , learning good value players versus bad value players , tiering up your guys , sticking to a plan and having enough confidence on draft day to  put it to action. I am not the type of player who is going to tell you I pick the “BREAKOUT” player every year and frankly beware of bloggers that do , most times they are looking for a gimmick and a way to get your attention in a Criss Angel type of way. Who I am is someone who has the innate ability to look at a player and tell you where he should be drafted and where he could be drafted next year versus where he is getting drafted today. I am telling  now that if you ended up with Vincent Jackson , Pierre Garcon , Percy Harvin , Mike Thomas and Malcolm Floyd , you did it in such a way that I will guarantee you your team is stacked  of your other positions as well. Ill put that team up against any team  who is hell bent at landing the next breakout star 3 rounds too early and I promise you if you draft values , YOU will land the breakout guy LONG before your opponent who got mind freaked does.