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The Holy Grail- Week 7 RBs

2 Montario Hardesty

time for Montario to play like he did in college

Teams on bye week: Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers

MUST START

1 Rice @Jax  He is the premier NFL fantasy PPR back. In weeks he doesn’t score he still gets 20 because of his work in the pass game. Jacksonville is a bad defense that was propped up by an easy schedule and Mendenhall dominated them last week. Rice is the safest play to give you a huge game with a high ceiling and a safe floor.

2 Mcfadden vs KC – He got it going early last week and was a broken tackle or two away from some other big gainers. Campbell getting hurt early sapped some life out of the offense even though Boller did a respectable job filling in. Carson Palmer should be above average there and keep defenses from loading up on DMC, not that it would matter as his talent usually wins out.

3 Foster @Tenn – Tennessee has only given up 1 td on the ground this year , but gives up over a 100 rushing yards a week. Foster has only scored 1 TD this year and will finish the season with 10 plus rushing TD’s. Something has a chance to give this week for both teams giving Foster some really big upside.

4 Forte @TB – Describing him in one word – Consistent. He does it all for that offense and has exceeded most everyone’s expectations coming into this season. TB defense is very vulnerable and Forte is a PPR pass catching beast which gives him the nod over more explosive runners like AP.

5 AP vs GB – Ponder starting can’t be worse than Mcnabb. He always offers huge game potential and is the most talented runner in the NFL. Why write too much about a guy who is going to start every week in any format on every fantasy team, so let’s move on.

Chris Johnson vs Hou – Houston giving up 4.6 YPC and 6 rushing TDs so far. If CJ doesn’t go big here you may be looking at the beginning of the decline of a back that lit up the NFL just two short seasons ago. I think he performs good this week.

Turner @ Detroit – A 3 TD candidate going into every week. Doesn’t catch passes , but his TD potential is enough to make him a must start during a big Bye week.

Mendenhall vs AZ – After last week it is safe to say Mendenhall is ready to be what I thought he would be this year. A lock for 100 and at least 1TD a week. Arizona has given up 8 ground TDs this year  , yea that’s bad and that makes him a must start.

SOLID STARTS

9 Ryan Mathews @NYJ – You can beat the Jets on the ground this year. Mathews has been dynamic all season. The bye week came at a great time as he was a bit banged up going into it. Versatile enough in this setting to be counted on regardless of the matchup – considered him as a must start but I still give the Jets D respect at home.

10 SJax vs Dal – Dallas is leading the league in rushing defense and that looks like a constant not a fluke. Steven Jackson ran really good last week , but his offense just doesn’t cooperate. He will get a huge workload and is talented enough to be a top 5 back so that counts for something.

11 Wells vs Pit – Pit is being run on this year , Wells is turning into a matchup proof RB as the Cards lean on him heavily. He has no comp for rushing touches or TDs and because of that he is a high-end RB2 every week in any format.

12 Daniel Thomas vs Den – Great matchup and he looked real good last week regardless of the outcome against the Jets. Bush is not the answer and the Dolphins know that, 100 total yards this week and a few catches minimum. In a bye week thats nice to have.

13 MJD vs Bal – Jax schedule has been brutal so far and it doesn’t get easier. The Jags won’t score , but MJD will do enough to be worthy of a start.

SOME QUESTIONS 

14 Mcgahee @ Mia – Tebow hurts Mcgahee the most because he will vulture a ton of TDs. Lloyd trade hurts b/c this opens up touches for other explosive pass catchers , namely his biggest competitor Moreno. I can see this shaping up to be Mcgahee between the 20’s and Moreno in on passing downs , 3rd downs and brought in when they need quick offense. Willlis is a hammy away from losing value dramatically but not yet and not this week.

15 Torain @ Car – He was a factor of the Eagles getting out to such a huge lead early. Beck helps because Shanny should run the ball a ton early. Will have a better game this week.. talk about going out on a limb.

16 Sproles vs Ind – He had only had 1 rushing attempt last week but still caught 8 balls. He had to slow down because he was on way to big a pace.

17 Hardesty vs Sea – Seahawks are shockingly dominant on run defense this year. Hardesty runs very good and catches the ball too. I like him in this area and with Hillis banged up and out of favor in Brown city. Has every down back ability in the NFL.

**This rank is if Hillis is inactive – He falls to mid 20’s if Hillis plays**

18 Ingram vs Ind – Indy ranks 31st in rushing defense this year. Ingram started last week and there are signs that his role is expanding since P Thomas has sucked it up. I like his value to increase drastically soon and is a good trade for candidate right now.

19 Shonn vs SD – Stuck in rb purgatory for a guy that should be a lot better. SD is not a good matchup for him , but he isn’t exploding in his good matchups either. Will get 20 carries which makes him a lock for 80 yards and some TD potential.

20 Battle @ Oak – 3 Sundays ago I went around and did a speculative add of Battle  in 25 fantasy money leagues. Good move and good matchup this week as Mccluster has been a disappointment and Thomas Jones is 900 years old. Not huge upside though – gets put below Shonn only because he has no track record.

21 Earnest Graham vs Chi – Looked great last week , nice player in this setting. Pedestrian offense but good enough to overcome a defense like Chicago and give you low-end RB2 numbers.

22 Demarco Murray vs STL – Great matchup and Felix is out. Choice is horrible and Murray is not. Romo might throw it 50 times this week but regardless Murray is a nice start and someone I claimed all over my money leagues.

23 Lynch @Cle – Good matchup , bad player but he has the least competition for touches of any back in this area.

24 Stewart vs Wash – Nice week last week , but has a really good defense to play against this week. Neither he nor D Will is any more than a low-end flex at this point. Stewart has the bigger upside in PPR.

25 Starks @ Min – There are so many mouths to feed in that offense that even guys like Finley are getting lost. He is their best and most explosive runner and is a very useful starter on weeks he scores but who knows which weeks those will be. Tough matchup this week away at Minny.

26 D Will vs Wash – Read last weeks blurb , insert it next to him every week from here on out – I told ya so, fluke long TDs are his only chance to give you winning numbers, I’ll pass.

27 Maurice Morris vs ATL – Bad defense and he is playing at home. He offers no real big game upside , but in a PPR game with all these RBs on byes and Best most likely a sit he plays like a decent flex in week 7.

**If Best is out**

I SCREWED UP MY DRAFT

28 Mike Tolbert @ NYJ – Mathews is the back in SD , but Tolbert has a chance to score every week and that should be noted.

29 Delone Carter @NO – Disappointed last week as Donald Brown scored a rushing TD. Still the back to start between the two but he had to disappoint quite a few fantasy owners last week.

30 Moreno @ Mia – Maybe Fox takes note that he needs Moreno to get more touches if he wants to win. Mcgahee is not the answer and with Lloyd gone he has next to no big play-makers and runs the risk of being shut out every week now. Guaranteed I have him higher than most , but in this area he offers the most skill and upside and you might as well take a chance.

31 D Brown @ NO – 10 touches and a couple of dump offs is enough to make the 30’s in my weekly rankings. It’s time to let Addai and Wayne go as the Colts go into rebuilding mode.

32 R Bush vs Den – Looked good last week , but we know who he is at this point in his career- an underachieving PPR back that isn’t even good in that setting anymore.

33 P. Thomas vs Ind – Being phased out of the offense, the Sproles signing just killed this guys value in all formats.

34 Grant @Min – Bad matchup , bad player  , start only if desperate.

35 Hightower @ Car – Shannahan is at it again and he is banged up , it makes me wonder, when is it Helu’s turn?

36 Tate @ Ten – He should still get around 10 touches to give Foster a breather and in deeper leagues he probably has more upside than most in this area.

37 Choice vs Stl – He is not a good running back. Makes mental mistakes and looks timid out there sometimes. With Felix out he will get some touches , but if you are in a  12 team league and you are starting Choice this week you probably lost your league already.

38 M Bush vs KC – Has a better than average chance at scoring this week , but also has a chance for 3 carries 2 yards and 0 TDs. Another guy you are probably only starting if you are desperate.

39 Helu @ Car – Makes the top 40 b/c you never know with the Skins. He has talent and could turn 7 touches into 70 yards and a score. But don’t bank on it.

40 Thomas Jones @Oak – Nice matchup , will get some decent attempts and touches but most likely will do nothing with them.

41 LT vs SD – Starting vs his own team which stilll doesn’t matter because 1 the Jets offense is horrible and 2 he is even older than Thomas Jones.

SLEEPER

Redman vs AZ- Az gives up a ton on the ground and Mendenhall won’t get 30 carries , so factor in about 7-10 for Redman and a chance Mendenhall tweaks a hammy makes him a very deep sleeper this week.

SHOT IN THE DARK

Ogbonnaya vs Sea – At home vs the Seahawks and Hillis could miss the game. He is a young and unproven player with talent. He could get a huge boost in value once Hillis is finally let go , which may happen sooner rather than later. He is definitely on the wire and b/c of Hillis’s issue he makes the Dark Status.

____________________________________________________________

WR’s coming tomorrow , then QB’s and TE’s after that.

Twitter: @iconfantasyJoe

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October 20, 2011 - Posted by | Fantasy, The Holy Grail, Weekly Ranks | , , , , , , , , , , ,

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