Updated WR rankings- 8/17/11
Here we go , I got 3 days worth of work done yesterday. So I can now catch up on some updated ranking lists. So here is my second crack at a ranking list for WRs. I will also add when you should target them and what round value you can expect as a rate of return.
I will tell you when to target these player and based on how I believe they will perform this year , my prediction on their rate of return , up or down the draft boards for next years draft. It is a simple tool that you can use when gauging value and determining whether or not each player is worth your time , money and draft pick. Fantasy has always and will always be about playing the value game in the players market , so lets see what I believe will be the rate of return for this years group of WRs.
1 Calvin Johnson WR/DET – Highest upside combination with youth- this WR should and will produce his best season as a pro in 2011
target late 1 this yr- mid 1 next yr
2 Andre Johnson WR/HOU– Yet to reach double digit TDs is because he gets nicked up every year , started already w/ a broken finger
target late 1 this yr – early 2 next year
3 Larry Fitzgerald WR/ARI – intermediate Route runner meets intermediate and accurate Qb , expect normal fitz #s and will always be safe as safe can be, think of him as the Matt Forte of WRs.
early to mid 2 this year , early to mid 2 next year
4 Roddy White WR/ATL– Moved him up past Nicks. He is safer than Nicks , but Nicks still has yet to put together his best pro year , last year was Roddys
Mid 2 this year Late 2 Next year – solid guy
5 Hakeem Nicks WR/NYG – Dude is a freak , his hands are ENORMOUS , he is too strong for any DB to cover him , best RZ threat next to Mega in the NFL
Late 2 this year – Early 2 next year
6 Mike Wallace WR/Pit – YPC will come down , receptions up , yards and tds the same , moved him up a spot past Jennings who will free fall down my rankings
early 3 this year , mid 2 next year– we may have seen his ceiling in TDs but I think his catches can and will go up
7 Vincent Jackson WR/SD – undervalued , 15 td potential but will never realize it 80 1200 10 more like it , best value of all the WRs right now and he is being under drafted
late 3 this year – mid 2 next year
8 Mike Williams WR/TB– moved him up nicely. His age and TD scoring ability with Freeman improving , the run game improving sets him up for a decent progression this year. I like the guy a lot and fairly safe even tho he has no track record
round4 this year , early 3 next year
9 Dwayne Bowe WR/KC – valued properly , obvious huge game potential weekly , Cassel still scares me , but he will score , still like him in this spot , he maxed his TDs and we have seen his best year , I think he will be as valuable this season scoring less points because it will be more of an even season , not this 4 week outburst where you win games by 40 instead of 15 , he will help ALL year now
late 3 – early 3 next year
10 Desean Jackson WR/Phi – with Maclin’s issues this guy is the only real dynamic threat in the passing game right now, I think he is going to have a nice year with Vick , still someone I won’t draft because of where he goes and what receivers I target a few rounds later. But Maclin is such a question mark it has to bump his value. If he stays healthy he will be top 10 easily, he just never stays healthy
late 3 – late 3 next yr
11 Greg Jennings WR/GB – Dropped out of my top 10 because Finley is back. Rodgers loves him , but its will be a spread it out type of affair with Nelson , Driver , James Jones , Finley AND Grant will get more carries. Still will perform but he is being overdrafted right now and people will pay for it if he doesnt score 10 tds.
mid 2 – late3 next yr
12 Santonio Holmes WR/NYJ – Better per game last yr than I thought , stay healthy and you’re lookin at 250 ppr points- Mason will help the offense get to the RZ more , I like Sanchez as a sleeper and Holmes is actually very good in the RZ for his size
mid 5 – mid 4 next year
Mid 5 – late 2-early 3 next year – only slotted behind santonio because its going to take A LOT for a 2nd year WR to jump and I like Santonio better this year over a round later in draft value.
14 Miles Austin WR/DAL – I think he is the main guy who will suffer with so many mouths to feed. When it was just Roy Williams there and a slew of bad WRs plus Witten he got all the targets. Dez is flat out more explosive and stronger. He isn’t as fast but their stats should be close (hence the ranking next to each other) I think he is being overdrafted and drafted as if he is the only guy at WR for Dallas again. Witten takes a tumble too.
overdrafted early 3 – market correction next year round 5
15 Percy Harvin WR/MINN – The guy will produce , some do not like him but I LOVE him in round 6 , migraines a thing of the past 75 catches a thing of the future , Mcnabb chucks it at WRs feet , Harvin is great at going low. I move him into my top 15 because I think he will perform like a top 15 player in that offense with Donovan. Great rates of return on him IMO.
mid 6 – early 4 next year
16 Brandon Marshall WR/MIA – Bad Qb , unsure what to make of his breakdown , prob staying away from him , but talent keeps him in top 20 , and moved up a spot in my rankings. I think he is being drafted in the right spot and could EASILY be a top 10 guy. Nice pick in round 4 for sure.
round 4 – round 3-4 next year , def offers more upside than Harvin , but you are paying a 2 round price in draft ADP to get him.
17 Mario Manningham WR/NYG – The guy shoots up my rankings because of Steve Smiths departure. He will now get an even bigger bump in targets and Eli likes him. I expect a nice season from him with better yardage and reception numbers now.
mid 6 – mid 4 next year – still limited on his compete upside tho.
18 Pierre Garcon WR/IND- LOTTA mouths to feed there , like him after Harvin and Manningham now , but before Collie because of Collie’s injury risk. If you need the bigger season with more risk you take Collie or Britt in this area , but if you want 15 ppg with no shot at 20 per game you take him and minimize your downside.
mid 6 – mid 4 next year
19 Austin Collie WR/IND – Risk meets upside here , concussions are a problem , play him when healthy and smile if you need the big season type guy he is your man. Beware the risks tho!
mid 6 – late 3 next year
20 Kenny Britt WR/Tenn – what a dbag , but great upside , i think he will outplay his draft position by 3 rounds
round 7 – round 4 next yr
21 Wes Welker WR/NE– still being overdrafted – why take this guy in round 4 when you can take manningham/collie in round 6
round 4 this year round 6 next
22 Boldin WR/Bal -I dont like him , but he is very good value right now and should be in the top 25. If he puts it all together he has tremendous upside so he is a big mover up my board
round 6 this year- round 5 next
23 Sidney Rice WR/SEA – will get force fed in the RZ , 8 tds is probable 70 catches a definite , talent to make his bad qbs a tiny bit better , I moved him up a bit just because of the questions of some other players
round 7 this year – round 5 next
24 Steve Johnson WR/buf- Moved him up because he deserves a top 25 selection. That doesnt mean he isn’t being overdrafted still, because he is , and I only moved him up 3 spots , this is more a product of my disdain for maclin and colston because of their health questions in Maclins case and inj and age questions in Colstons case.
mid 6 this year mid 6 next year
25 Brandon Lloyd WR/Den – Orton bumps him back up , great at adjusting to a poorly thrown deep ball , only TD threat on the team
A bust candidate but belongs in this group/area 100%
26 Maclin WR/Phi – The biggest drop here , I did not like where he was being drafted before this sickness , and I still think he is being overdrafted. Everyone says he is fine now but I do NOT buy it.
early 4 this year mid 7 next
27 Mike Thomas WR/ jax – Liking him more and more by the day , he will have a very nice year and may play his way up to the WR2 status of manningham , garcon ,etc etc
round 8 this year , round 5 next
28 Colston – You are a bum! and you have no upside , plus you’re already banged up. You only go here because you possess 12 td ability and upside , I am not drafing you
round 4 – round 7 next
29 – Chad Johnson – You move up a bit , but its negligible , however it is deserving , Brady is a monster and you have one year of wr2 ability left in you
round 6 this year round 6 next year , THEN a big decline
30 Lance Moore – This is the WR to own in NO , none of them will be stellar , but he will benefit from Bush being gone and if Graham continues to drop passes FORGET it , Moore will be flooded with targets if Brees looks off Graham.
round 9 this year round 5 next (GREAT VALUE!!)
iCon only updated the top 30 because the rest are literally about the same exact type of value from here on out.
Best of the rest:
Santana Moss , Amendola, Crabtree ,Floyd , Steve Smith (car) , Jerome Simpson , AJ Green , Julio Jones
all of these guys should go after round 10 but may perform above their draft position.
Thats it for today!
TE rankings published this Saturday
Update on site progress!
you can see the foundation being put in at www.iconfantasysports.com
it looks messy , but in a few days it will all be cleaned up and set up properly!
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