iCon Sports Experience

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Updated RB Rankings – Returns on investment 8/13/11

Ray Rice

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

Ok so here we are , I have been churning out articles about three to four times a week. I am already getting a ton of hits per day on a blog that I haven’t advertised for. The value of the company , the blog , the brand is increasing by leaps and bounds daily and the site has not even been launched yet (thanks to a coder who has his head up his…) I’ve got a partner who purchased his share in iCon at what will eventually be a bargain basement price because he saw value, he saw the passion I had for this hobby and frankly he believes by investing in iCon he is going to get a greater rate of return than he was putting out.

It is this exact concept and that approach that you HAVE to take during your drafts for the rest of this summer AND for the rest of your life. You have to develop the skill to be able to look at a player and decide what he is worth and where he should be drafted. You MUST become an expert on the ebbs and flows of the player market , these players are investments , these players are icon’s and with EVERY investment comes risk  and in every market there are winners and losers. If you follow iCon’s way of thought and you believe in a value system and you develop your own niche in this hobby and your own draft and team assembly style you WILL be a winner in this market just like Mister X will be a winner with his investment (we hope).

So I wanted to apply the concept of next years returns in order to update this years value and ranking list in order to take this ENTIRE blog to the next level.  I am going to TELL YOU just by my research , my breadth of knowledge of this market and these trends where you will draft a player this year and where you will draft him next year. It is a simple concept but by seeing this you can then better gauge the players you should be targeting , when you should be targeting them and how much I think they will play above or below their draft position.  Follow my lead , open your mind and treat your players like Mister X treated his investment in THIS company.

UPDATE RANKINGS AND RATE OF RETURN:

Adrian Peterson – Safest combo of upside , power , speed , situation and track record

top 4 this year , top 4 next year = Tabula Rasa , Blank Slate John LOCKe if I ever seen it

Ray Rice – I did it , I’ve wanted to , I’ve teased myself with the idea that I am going to put him here , but with news he will play on the goalline this guy is in for his best PPR year as a pro. Mark it down and I can see him being the best RB this yr.

top 5 this year-  1 -3  overall next year

Jamaal Charles – Not as good a receiver as Rice but a better runner , TD potential is very similiar and flip flopping these two this year or next year really does not matter. Similiar value this yr and next year

top 4 this year – 1-3 overall next year

4 Chris Johnson – The holdout is sapping his value , he has a TON of carries on his still fresh legs , but the dropoff is coming soon, still a freak but I have to move him down until he comes to camp and I think last yr was indicative of what we will see this yr , my early love for him is waning and IMO my value judgement on him is better now going forward , each passing day will move him down the list.

top 5 this yr – will be a late first rounder next yr still making him a safe pick

Arian Foster – still a great combo of ppr and td potential , still a risk , still no track record ,still tweaked a hammy already and still have seen his best year as a pro and a regression is in order which is a FACT

top 2 this year , second half round 1 next year making his returns still worth a pick in the top 5

Mcfadden – Could be set up for his best year as a pro and if it doesn’t happen this year then it will never happen. Injury prone which is something you HAVE to plan for if he ends up on your team , but will win some weeks for you on his own

picks 7-10 this year – top 3 next yr if booms , round 4-5 next yr if he gets injured and busts – I predict boom and I draft him every chance I get at the end of round 1  , slotted behind Foster because I think Foster is the safer pick for this season.

Mccoy –  im taking some flack for putting shady behind Mcfadden but I am sticking to my assessment. I expect an injury and I think his upside is limited and some of his long TDs last year were fluky. He will catch passes , a lot of them and in PPR thats safe , but he reminds me of Slaton a few years ago , someone that was never going to score as many TDs as he did his year as starter, has the injury prone look and a good receiver in a good offense.

top 5 this year  – late 1 early 2 next year when people realize his ceiling was reached already

Mendenhall – His only Limit is his pass catching ability, excellent runner , and will score a ton of TDs this year, only goes after Mccoy b/c of the pass catching ability of Mccoy , but he is a better runner and td scorer than almost anyone from Foster down.

Early round 2 this year , mid 1 next year but goes after Mccoy because Mccoy will 100% score numbers worth a pick here because of PPR (unless he gets injured like i’ve discussed)

Matt Forte -I am taking him over Gore/Sjax/Mjd now because I think his returns are more predictable , he will never be taken higher than where he is taken now , but he won’t go much lower in a PPR setting. I can’t envision a scenario that you turn your early 2 in forte into a 4th  rounder value just because of his skillset , the offense and his age , but I can see scenario playing out  with any of the other backs in the next few picks.

early to mid 2 this year – early to mid 2 next year

10 Maurice Jones Drew – Still has injury concerns , but young enough to play through it for at least this year before a drop

late 1 this year mid to late 2 next year – still good enough this year to warrant the selection and still has the upside for much higher but risk is there , I’m not touching him. I do not own him once but he still belongs here.

11 Frank Gore –  If he stays healthy he will give you top tier numbers on a per game basis , was having a great year till the injury and that can be said about him almost EVERY year he has been in the NFL. Expect a decline AFTER this year in his per game production will warrants a selection here and should still perform at a very high level , but he will most likely get nicked up

early 2 / mid 2  to mid 3 next yr

12 Steven Jackson – his last chance at a big season ,the offense will move it and he will see A LOT of work in the passing game , still one of the few guys with no comp for carries , but now has a qb that will move the ball – the decline is coming but he is being drafted in the right spot -ONLY gets taken before some of the younger guys because he still possesses double digit TD potential and 50 catch ability and is still only 27 , decline is coming just in time for that offense to take off which will be sad because I have loved this guy for a while. A true warrior but late 2 is the right spot for a solid RB2 which is all he is now.

late 2 / 3-4 next yr

13 Peyton Hillis – this is a ranking for right now , I believe he will be worth a pick in the top 15 backs RIGHT NOW and will perform good early on , but his bruising style will lower his value later and it will get reflected then , I can see a scenario where he comes out of the gate on fire , slows down , gets nicked up for a month , then performs well enough in the playoffs to warrant selection in the same spot next year , I pass him for some other backs , but for pure 20 carries 3-5 catches and a td weeky skillset , he has it.

Mid 3 -Mid 4 next year will perform good enough early to warrant the 3rd round pick then come back later to keep his value up for next year , im not touching him unless I NEED someone who can give me RB1 numbers getting bulk carries , otherwise I pass and wait for some RB clutter to unravel and take the last one or two in the 15-25 range

14 Best – The Leshoure injury will not affect him a ton in the long run , PLUS they signed Harrison who actually will minutely cut into his catch game just because Harrison has always been a good receiver. Best will still get his , but I can not justify putting him above Hillis , still an ELECTRIC guy with the ball in what may be a top 3 offense for fantasy purposes this coming year. Expect him to outplay his draft position of mid 3 but his size and build and last years injuries keep him from getting overdrafted – Hillis and Him get flip flopped depending on how your roster looks , if I DONT have a rb yet I feel more comfortable taking Hillis as Hillis offers the type of combo goal work and catch work to be a top end 1 but offers more bust potential because he is freaking Peyton Hillis , if I already have a stud (mendy and up) I take Best because he has the upside to explode in the catch game but someone I don’t feel comfortable rolling with as my first RB off the board.

15 Bradshaw – Offers the best combo of safety and skillset. You know what you are going to get , and if he doesn’t get injured you get points , PERIOD he goes before Blount and Greene because he CATCHES the ball nicely. Again look at your roster and if you have a few Rbs there already you can go with someone who offers some more upside than he does , but if you need stability at the spot , here is your guy.

round 4 this yr – round3 to 4 next year

16 Locomotive Blount – Another guy I would take as my RB1 but NOT as my Rb2 , does that even make sense? Well it does because the point is I can take a chance on hitting homerun if I already have a stud RB1 to mask the stench of a missed upside pick. He will score tds , get yards , but he WON”T catch the ball , he has 15 td upside , but he still seems raw to me and his running style is reckless , but entertaining as hell , eventually one of his somersaults will end up in a separated shoulder and some missed time.

mid 3 this year – mid 2 next COULD see him jump to the end of round 1 next year if he stays healthy and makes some more highlights – I like him

17 Knowshon Moreno – Some claim Willis is the man  some say he is BAD , HORRIBLE , WRETCHED! But the guy flat out catches the rock almost better than anyone after rice and mccoy and thats a fact , he has round 1 upside and round 8 downside, I am all in on Moreno from mid 3-round 4 and I might have to eat crow , But again I can’t get past the running offense combo with his catch game abilities especially where you are drafting him. I think I adjusted properly and moved him down a bit but not too far down.

mid to late 3 – early to mid 2 next year if im right – bankrupt blog over lose all my leagues and eat crow if im wrong!

(had a beer with my cousin the other day , he told me he used to play vs Knowshon in HS and ran a better 40 time , I promptly kicked him in the shin) – Love my NJ roots!

18 Shonn Greene – 1200 10 td is about the floor for the guy like this and thats AWESOME – I do not think he offers the type of running ability and upside that blount offers because he is less athletic and frankly not as good a runner. But his situation is great and he is ready to take the ball from LT and do a lot with it. Honestly flip a coin between greene/moreno/blount/bradshaw with Moreno having the biggest questions and most upside and Greene having the lowest floor by least upside and I am CERTAIN I nailed my ranking of this group PERFECT, I dare you to challenge me!

19 Mark Ingram – Biggest mover up my RB board by a large margin. Buzz in camp , scored a td in the preseason game , but Payton will use multiple backs there , plus sproles will catch  it a lot and if PT gets healthy you have a potential NIGHTMARE – Early season value will be negated by clutter and the fact he is a rookie but late season value will improve. I think he belongs in my top 20 because IF he takes off , he blows up hard , LarrytheLip HATES this guy – Don’t know who the Lip is.. well you better ask someeeeeebody – TCW love hims tho , iCon falls somewhere in between and drafts him enough, just in case.

risk , but upside , again it ALWAYS depends on your roster composition when making selections

mid 4 – late 2 next year

20 Felix Jones – Re-thought my position on Felix. I know Garrett loves him in the catch game even tho I think he isn’t a good receiver. Luckily for Felix owners I am not the coach of the Cowboys. But he was a big mover up my board because of the situation and the great offense he will be a part of , Temper your expectations PLEASE , he rarely scares TDs , maybe he can get 6-8 this year coupled with decent yardage and catch totals and will make for a serviceable rb2 and flex play

rd 5 this yr- 3-4 next year

21 Dwill – see other rankings , still like him outside the top 20 just because I am not convinced he will EVER be as good as a few years ago. Plus Stewart is better and talent eventually wins out , Felix goes before him if you need a guy you know will catch it and get you some points , Dwill goes before Felix if you need a guy who can carry your team if the stars align

3-4 this yr 5 -6 next yr

22 Turner – the decline is coming , but will score TDs in bunches some weeks. I won’t own him not even once

round3 this year round 6 next

 

23 Daniel Thomas – 25 yard catch in his preseason action , going to be the only back on the roster who can carry the load. Bush is bad , bad , bad and injury prone AND moves to a conference with better defenses. Bush will get the catches though , that’s a fact (until he gets injured). I take him if I need to risk the upside, I pass if I have some other guys I like and I need more safety at RB or a different position.

Round 5 this year – round 3 next year

24 Marshawn Lynch – I hate you , I’ll never own you , but I can’t deny you belong in the top 25 you are a solid round 6 pick who will not perform better than a round 6 pick , and could perform like a round 8-9 pick EASILY.

Round 6 – Round 7-8 next yr

25 – Stewart – I just keep envisioning a healthier Stewart dominating DWill in Carolina. The guy is just flat out amazing with the ball , the line will be better , the offense will be better , be is the best player on the offense and he is the ONLY guy going in round 7-8 that you could even create the scenario that he will be a late 1 early 2 next year. I’m saying right now there is no better value on the board at RB come round 7- who else you gonna take.. ADDAI? BENSON? ARE YOU PLAYING FOR 6th place? cuz thats what you get with those mutts.

round 7-8 this year   round 3 next year

 

freddy I dropped out but he holds about even value to most of these guys in the 20 plus range , he just didn’t make the cut for my taste. But if you draft him in round 6 or so you can expect a decent and predictable return , nice flex play.

Honorable Mention RBBC MESSES:

Grant – has the early value

Starks-  mid to late season value

Wells early

R. Williams late

Torain/Hightower(maybe)  early

Helu/Royster late

Matthews split season value

Tolbert split season value

Thats all for now!

Keep a look for updated WR rankings as I play the value game with them as well

and update a ranking list to reflect the subtle changes to the market this past week.

iCon Sports

Contend.Compete.Connect

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August 13, 2011 - Posted by | Fantasy | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

1 Comment »

  1. I found your blog on google and read a few of your other posts. I just added you to my Google News Reader. Keep up the good work. Look forward to reading more from you in the future.

    Comment by Larry Navarro | August 13, 2011 | Reply


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